The other nuance with these contract restrictions is that they are based on a number that is currently unknown and will remain unknown until a few weeks before the start of the 2012 season – field size. If the field is 20 cars then the most cars a mfr can supply is 8, if the field size is 30 then that number is 12. Honda and Chevy are both right at about 8 and will commit to no more. They are waiting to see what the field size will actually be before signing additional entries.

I think this plays out one of two ways.

If Lotus doesn’t answer the bell then the 40 rule is waived or replaced by a 60% rule and Honda and Chevy carry the day until someone agrees to pay Cosworth’s asking Dev cost and they enter the field with the 40% rule reinstated.
OR
Lotus answers the bell. But I don’t think they will answer the bell and supply engines unless they feel their long term place in the sport is secured and that involves executing an ownership stake in a team. They buy into a two car team to insure that when Cosworth does show up they don’t have to worry about being left completely in the cold. Their engines will always be run by their team.

Teams to keep an eye on…NHL and HVM.

I seem to recall hearing or reading the IndyCar media (Cavin in particular) say, on multiple occasions earlier this year, that they didn’t expect any current team to sign up for the Lotus motor. And that wasn’t because they expected it to be vaporware. There was even talk of Lotus having to start or buy a team just to get on the grid. While not communicating is a very poor way to handle the situation, it’s concievable that Lotus has cooled on Indycar after it appeared that no one wanted them.

If the grid is short on engines next year, I’m not sure if we ought to blame the manufacturers for limiting their supply, the teams for not doing their homework and realizing this, Lotus/Judd joining CART’s MG/Judd in nonexistence, or the series itself for not having a plan to prevent this.